Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund with the pharmaceutical industry to cycle investment fund channel-www.9999mp.com

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund: follow the cycle of pharmaceutical industry investment fund to channel the pharmaceutical industry is steady growth of the industry in the eyes of many people, but in fact the small cycle industry is also quite obvious, changes in demand and supply alternately. In addition, the pharmaceutical industry government regulation is more, will often cause disturbance to the supply and demand. First, review the demand cycle of the pharmaceutical industry since 2000: 1., 2000-2006 years, steady growth stage, the prime time of generic drugs. 2., 2007-2012 years, demand rapid pull stage, some safe invalid varieties popular. In this stage, there are 2 important points: 1) 2009 is an important watershed, in 2009 the government’s new health care reform investment 850 billion, plus the new rural cooperative coverage process, in the demand side of the strong pull, medicine ushered in the prime time of investment. 2) there has been an important structural change in 2012. Before 2012, the antibiotics related enterprises were facing a better market environment; with the "limited resistance" started, the related enterprises of traditional Chinese medicine injections ushered in their own spring. 3.2012 up to now, medical insurance control fee has been gradually implemented, demand growth has returned to normal level; many large varieties of traditional Chinese medicine injections have finished their most glorious course, and returned to a stable stage. After 2012, the rapid demand pulling stage come to an end, enterprises have begun to adapt to rapid changes in the industry; the supply side changes began to dominate the market, but also ushered in the two wave of market: the early 2014 and early 2015 acquisition of medical services and medical Internet are relatively large market of medical Service: 1. After 2013, the development of medical service has accelerated obviously. Specialist hospitals are representatives, and these years have created many new formats, such as the integration of public hospitals, hemodialysis services, hospital turnkey construction, third party independent laboratories, health examination, etc.. 2. mergers and acquisitions. In 2013, many instruments and pharmaceutical companies joined in mergers and acquisitions. With the registration system approaching and the launch of the new three board, the difficulty of mergers and acquisitions is increasing, the continuity of mergers and acquisitions may be problems, some enterprises fast mergers and acquisitions of the sequelae began to reflect (such as goodwill impairment, etc.). 3. internet medical treatment. In early 2015, accompanied by the big city, the Internet related medical companies appeared a big wave of market. With the overall decline of the market, the future of regional leading, major diseases, large platforms and other aspects of the internet medical enterprise is expected to win. Reviewing the history of medicine over the past 10 years, standing in the present point of view, the future of the industry or structural opportunities. 1. innovation and internationalization. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the fierce competition in the generics industry is facing long-term downside risks, but the supply of innovative drugs is seriously insufficient. Is expected out of the long-term Manniu pattern of innovative enterprises, with the internationalization of innovative drug companies, China pharmaceutical companies could have hundreds of billions of market capitalization of listed companies. The process of internationalization in the past is also evolving: first, exports of raw materials and drugs, and gradually to the export of medical devices and generic drugs.

摩根士丹利华鑫基金:跟着医药产业的周期去投资-基金频道   医药行业在很多人的眼里都是稳定成长型的行业,但实际上行业的小周期也是比较明显的,需求和供给的变化交替进行。另外,医药行业政府监管比较多,会经常对供给和需求造成扰动。   首先回顾一下2000年以来医药行业的需求周期:   1. 2000-2006年,稳定增长阶段,仿制药的黄金时间。   2. 2007-2012年,需求快速拉动阶段,一些安全无效的品种大行其道。在这个阶段里面,有2个重要时点:1)2009年是重要分水岭,2009年政府新医改投入8500亿,加上新农合等广覆盖的过程,在需求端的强力拉动下,医药迎来了投资的黄金时间。2)2012年出现了一个重要结构性变化。在2012年之前,抗生素相关企业面临较好的市场环境;随着“限抗”开始,中药注射剂相关企业迎来了自己的春天。   3. 2012至今,医保控费开始逐步推行,需求增速回到正常水平;中药注射剂等很多大品种也走完了自己最辉煌的历程,回归到平稳阶段。   2012年之后,需求快速拉动阶段告一段落,企业也开始快速调整来适应行业变化;供给侧变化明显开始占主导,也迎来了二级市场一波又一波的行情:2014年初的医疗服务和并购、2015年初互联网医疗都是比较大的行情:   1. 医疗服务。2013年以后,医疗服务发展明显加速。专科医院是代表,这些年又产生了很多新的业态,比如对公立医院的整合、血透业务、医院总包建设、第三方独立实验室、健康体检等。   2. 并购。2013年很多器械和药企纷纷加入并购的行列。随着注册制临近和新三板等的推出,并购难度在加大,并购的持续性可能会出现问题,一些企业快速并购的后遗症开始体现(如商誉减值等)。   3. 互联网医疗。2015年初伴随着大牛市,互联网医疗的相关公司出现很大的一波行情。随着市场的整体回落,未来区域龙头、大病种、大平台等方面的互联网医疗企业有望胜出。   回顾医药近10多年的历史,站在现在的时点看,行业未来或以结构性的机会为主。   1. 创新和国际化。在医保控费的大背景下,竞争较激烈的仿制药行业面临长期下行风险,但是国内创新药供给却是严重不足。创新型企业有望走出长期慢牛格局,伴随着创新药企业的国际化,中国药企才可能出现几千亿市值的上市公司。过去国际化的过程也在演变:最初是原料药等出口、逐步到医疗器械和仿制药的出口、未来创新药企业有望逐步走向世界。随着测序技术、基因编辑技术、免疫细胞治疗等技术的发展,行业有望加速。   2. 医疗服务。医疗服务没有政策的利空,中长期看好。近2年开始上市公司里面开始出现了很多新的业态:康复、养老、大病种的垂直整合、医院IVD中心实验室的外包、第三方独立影像等。   3. 流通行业变革。流通行业过去主要只承担了“搬箱子”的角色,所以行业地位较低。在处方药外流、医保控费、O2O的大背景下,其横向开始行业整合,纵向开始涉足医保控费、电商、慢性病管理(利用药店终端实现O2O)等,行业地位和业务附加值大幅提升。   4. 国企改革。国企改革有加速的迹象,值得关注。   5. 高景气的细分领域。血液制品等资源性的行业,因为供应短缺,还有提价的内在动力,值得关注。大宗原料药等行业,年初出现了涨价,但是从历史经验来看,属于周期性的波动,可持续性较差。   回顾过去,医药行业永远不缺投资机会,但投什么极其重要,最好的做法是跟着医药产业的周期去投资。相关的主题文章: